Double Trouble?


New York – The president of investment at Fidelity International, a London- based affiliate of Boston’s Fidelity Investments, Anthony Bolton, went on record today saying that “The world isn’t going to a double-dip” at a conference in Shanghai.  The topic of a double dip recession has been on investor’s minds for some time now, and more and more of the world’s respected economists are offering their opinions on the matter.

In August, Integrity Research polled a number of the economists in its database, asking them their thoughts on the possibility of a double dip recession and/or deflation.  Their responses can be read in three parts the first of which is here, and continued here and here.   Overall, the economists Integrity surveyed seem to agree with Mr. Bolton, stating that the probability of a double dip recession is low. Of the economists Integrity surveyed, none rated the possibility as higher than 33%, with most closer to the 25% or 20% range.

Warren Buffet also gave his opinions on the matter just a few days ago when he objected to the possibility of a double dip recession due to the fact that the businesses owned by Berkshire Hathaway Inc. are growing.  Of course, not everyone is in agreement that the chances of a double dip recession are slight, with Nouriel Roubini and Martin Feldstein putting the odds of another recession at one in three or higher.

Anthony Bolton is currently located in Hong Kong managing Fidelity’s closed-end China Special Situations Fund.  From 1979 through 2007 Mr. Bolton achieved annualized growth of 19.5% at the helm of the Fidelity Special Situations Fund.


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