The following is the third in a series of articles about the insights, struggles and victories of running a successful IRP in today’s market environment. This article was written by former hedge fund manager and sell-side analyst Jonathan Tyce, who has now launched his own IRP based in the UK.
The Spotlight series is designed to introduce highly successful, unusual and – in many cases – idiosyncratic providers of independent research, data, tools and thinking. The third spotlight in the series introduces a seismologist-turned-trader, highly successful author and fund manager with a 20-plus year track record of successful geopolitical calls and significant alpha generation.
Spotlights aim to provide a snapshot of the motivations, approach, non-consensus thinking and career observations of notable independents. Readers interested in following up on themes and ideas discussed are encouraged to contact the subject of the spotlight and/or the author (contact details below).
I basically promised myself on my first day in Papua New Guinean jungle that I’d work for myself by the age of 30, and I left JP Morgan after 7 years, on my 30th birthday and set up my first hedge fund.
From the Jungle to the Boardroom
David Murrin is renowned for his non-consensus views and application of wave theory and observations from the cycles of history. His unique approach informs his work as a geopolitical commentator, strategic thinker and investment market forecaster.
As he explains it “I knew nothing about anything really in finance but I did know something about people, and I watched people on the trading floor in the first few weeks and realised they were like my Papua New Guinea workforce.
“They were basically behaving collectively, not individualistically. So. I thought, well, what affects emotional behaviours and price? And I made that my study in a fundamental house at the time when no one studied price.”
Waves of Information
With a scientist’s background, a desire to quantify behaviour, and a view that price was the best way to quantify behaviour, Murrin made a key breakthrough about a year and a half into his JPMorgan tenure. “I was introduced to a guy called Drew Baptiste, who worked in the States, and his father had made a lot of money, and lost a lot of money in gold, and was a wave counter.”
“When I first encountered wave counting I laughed! But then I watched these counts, and I couldn’t believe some of them and how they worked.”
In typically honest fashion, Murrin confesses that even to this day, he really doesn’t not understand how Elliott (of Elliott Wave theory fame) came to his conclusions, but he was sold.
Many of the concepts in science, fractal behaviour and what he understood as a scientist were exhibited in these waves and patterns. Thereon in, the basis of all his market work has been wave counting – “each wave displaying a personality that reflects the way the market sees itself and thinks”.
What is the one thing in your career that has surprised you most?
“The lack of curiosity that most people exhibit to basically ask questions about why behaviours in markets and people keep repeating.”
What does Global Forecaster actually do?
Global Forecaster has three distinct products and looks to predict geopolitical and market trends, reversals, events and outcomes that others may not anticipate.
Global Forecaster– geopolitical insights and forecasts based on a model integrating geopolitical, military, economic, financial market and environmental developments.
Global Trader – real time macro market forecasts and trade recommendations across equities, crypto, FX, bonds, EM and commodities
Global Strategist – applying lessons from Murrin’s five-phase lifecycle model to provide strategic insight and advice across a multitude of professional spheres.
A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words – Top Calls
The great thing about using wave theory is that the pictures paint themselves. Three of David’s top (ongoing) calls, with full audit history available since inception, are:
Top Call: long gold as part of a major Bull trend from $1823 with an $1805 stop and running the trade with rising stops
Top FX call: Long cable since 1.0680 low with a 1.050 stop and target of 1.60
Top Equity call – short A50 from 17371 with an 18300 stop, a trade linked to a geopolitical view on China that frames them as preparing to go to war.
Distilling a career, philosophy and approach into about 700 words and do it justice is of course not possible. To get the fuller version, and discuss how Global Forecaster and David could help you generate alpha, visit:
To contact the author to discuss a future spotlight or to discuss TriggerPoint, please email jonathantyce@trigger-point.co.uk.