The following guest article was submitted by Mikheil Shengelia, Research Analyst at Eagle Alpha, an alternative data aggregation platform providing supporting advisory services for data buyers and vendors.
On October 16th, Eagle Alpha hosted a workshop in partnership with Similarweb which was designed to equip investors with actionable insights ahead of earnings season. This session highlighted how clickstream and app data can be leveraged to analyze company performance at the ticker level.
Eagle Alpha explored how web traffic and app engagement metrics serve as leading indicators for revenue, important KPI’s and user trends, and how these alternative data signals can help with pre-earnings season modelling. Similarweb’s analysts Nathan Friedman, Md Mohtasim Uddin, and Ezekiel Fine covered a plethora of tickers, and we selected a handful for this summary.
Similarweb analyst Md Mohtasim Uddin shared a detailed analysis of Reddit’s Q3 performance, noting that daily active users (DAUs) grew 12% year-over-year, slightly ahead of expectations, while ad revenue rose 28% year-over-year, showing strength despite some deceleration. Concerns about Reddit losing prompt share within ChatGPT were addressed — Md noted that referrals from generative AI make up less than 1% of Reddit’s total traffic, posing minimal near-term risk. Organic search, Reddit’s primary growth driver, remained strong at +20% year-over-year, and engagement with the new “Reddit Answers” feature jumped 200% quarter-over-quarter.
Figure 1: Y/Y – CY- Backtest of Reddit Quarterly Results – No Lag (Source: Similarweb)
Figure 2: Y/Y – Backtest of Reddit Quarterly Results – 2Q Lag (Source: Similarweb)
Md explained that Reddit’s recent decline in ChatGPT visibility stemmed from Google’s September update, which deprecated the “num=100” URL parameter and now limits large language models like ChatGPT to the top 10 search results. As a result, Reddit threads outside those top results became less discoverable, leading to a notable drop in Reddit’s citation share that has yet to recover.
He also outlined how brand visibility within AI chatbots can be tracked by analyzing mentions and citations across large sets of ChatGPT prompts. This method quantifies how often a brand—such as Reddit—is referenced in chatbot-generated responses, offering insights into its relative “brand share” across domains.
Instacart
Similarweb analyst Ezekiel Fine presented findings on Instacart (MapleBear), highlighting mixed trends across its core business segments. Instacart’s order growth showed slight deceleration versus Q2, with the team forecasting low single-digit declines in Q3—largely in line with consensus expectations. However, the company’s ad revenue outlook appeared stronger. Ezekiel explained that their ad revenue model, which operates on a two-quarter lag, indicated 41% year-over-year growth based on Q1 2025 web activity. This suggests potential upside versus consensus, which expects mild deceleration. Nonetheless, the data also indicates that year-over-year ad growth may have peaked, with trends beginning to flatten heading into future quarters.
Figure 3: Y/Y – CY – Backtest of Instacart Quarterly Results – No Lag (Source: Similarweb)
Figure 4: Y/Y – Backtest of Instacart Quarterly Results – 2Q Lag (Source: Similarweb)
Ezekiel emphasized that the lag in the ad revenue model reflects the natural time gap between web ad activity and when Instacart recognizes that revenue, aligning both statistically and with business logic. He also discussed the usefulness of two-year CAGR as a complementary measure to normalize results, helping offset distortions from unusually high or low comps in prior periods.
In terms of market dynamics, Ezekiel noted that the grocery delivery space remains highly competitive, with more traditional delivery platforms expanding into the sector. This growing competition may be contributing to the slight decline in Instacart’s order index quarter-over-quarter. Despite these pressures, Instacart continues to demonstrate healthy ad growth momentum and remains well positioned within the evolving online grocery ecosystem.
DraftKings
Similarweb analyst Nathan Friedman outlined a cautious outlook for DraftKings, noting mid–single-digit downside risk to consensus expectations of 6% growth in reported monthly unique payers. While DraftKings’ monthly activity index turned positive in September—helped by an NFL-season boost in sportsbook mobile app usage—growth on a two-year CAGR basis declined by five percentage points, suggesting that the apparent strength was largely driven by favorable comparisons rather than underlying acceleration. On a quarterly level, the tracker showed a nine-point deceleration, continuing a softening trend that began in late 2024.
Figure 5: Y/Y – CY – Backtest of DraftKing Quarterly Results – No Lag (Source: Similarweb)
Figure 6: DraftKing Monthly Index Data (Source: Similarweb)
Nathan highlighted that, across the broader U.S. sportsbook market, mobile app downloads have been rebounding, but DraftKings has underperformed peers amid intensifying competition. Prediction-market platforms like Kalshi are seeing rising engagement and market share, reflecting a shift in user behavior within the sports betting ecosystem. He noted that Flutter (FanDuel’s parent) is also contending with similar pressures, and that early data points to potential weakness heading into Q4.
Nathan added context on the emerging crossover between prediction markets and traditional betting, referencing Robinhood’s recent launch of football prediction markets through Kalshi. Despite growing buzz around these products, cross-browsing data shows only about 1% of DraftKings visitors also visiting Kalshi within 24 hours—equivalent to roughly 200,000 overlapping visits out of 20.5 million monthly for DraftKings. While this indicates limited near-term overlap, the increasing attention toward event-based betting platforms underscores a gradually evolving competitive landscape for DraftKings and other major sportsbooks.
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